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We show a subset of the history to illustrate the evolution.
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Party Rank Losing Party Electoral Fate
candidate margin
1 1789 Washington - 3 J. Adams - 69 0
1793 Washington - J. Adams F 132 0 Retired
2 1797 J. Adams F 12 Jefferson DR 71 68 Defeated in presidential election
3 1801 Jefferson DR 4 Burr DR 73 65
1805 Jefferson DR Pinckney F 162 14 Retired
4 1809 Madison DR 14 Pinckney F 122 47 6
1813 Madison DR Clinton F 128 89 Retired
5 1817 Monroe DR 16 King F 183 34
1821 Monroe DR J.Q. Adams DR 231 1 Retired
6 1825 J.Q. Adams DR 21 Jackson DR 84 99 41 37 Defeated in presidential election
7 1829 Jackson D 8 J.Q. Adams NR 178 83
1833 Jackson D Clay NR 219 49 11 7 Retired
8 1837 Van Buren D 24 W.Harrison W 170 73 26 14 11 Defeated in presidential election
9 1841 W. Harrison W 39 Van Buren D 234 60 Died in office
10 VP Tyler W 37 Defeated in primary
11 1845 Polk D 10 Clay W 170 105 Retired
12 1849 Tayler W 35 Class D 163 127 Died in office
13 VP Filmore W 38 Defeated in primary
14 1853 Pierce D 41 Scott W 254 42 Defeated in primary
15 1857 Buchanan D 43 Fremont R 174 114 8 Retired
16 1861 Lincoln R 1 Breckin. SD 180 72 39 12
1865 Lincoln NU McClellan D 212 21 Assassinated
17 VP Johnson NU 40 Defeated in primary
18 1869 Grant R 36 Seymour D 214 80
1873 Grant R Hendricks D 286 42 18 2 Retired
19 1877 Hayes R 25 Tilden D 185 184 Retired
20 1881 Garfield R 31 Hancock D 214 155 Assassinated
21 VP Arthur R 28 Defeated in primary
22 1885 Cleveland D 18 Blaine R 219 182 Defeated in presidential election
23 1889 B. Harrison R 29 Cleveland D 233 168 Defeated in presidential election
24 1893 Cleveland D 18 B.Harrison R 277 145 22 Defeated in primary
25 1897 McKinley R 19 Bryan DP 271 176
1901 McKinley R Bryan D 292 155 Assassinated
26 VP T. Roosevelt R 5
1905 T. Roosevelt R Parker D 336 140 Retired. Had pledged not to seek a third term
27 1909 Taft R 23 Bryan D 321 162 Lost in presidential election
28 1913 Wilson D 7 Roosevelt P 435 88 8
1917 Wilson D Hughes R 277 254 Would not have been nominated by his party
29 1921 Harding R 42 Cox D 404 127 Died in office
VP Coolidge R 30
1925 Coolidge R Davis D 382 136 13 Retired
31 1929 Hoover R 32 Smith D 444 87 Defeated in presidential election
32 1933 F. Roosevelt D 2 Hoover R 472 59
1937 F. Roosevelt D Landon R 523 8
1941 F. Roosevelt D Willkie R 449 82
1945 F. Roosevelt D Dewey R 432 99 Died in office
VP Truman D 6
33 1949 Truman D Dewey R 303 189 39 Defeated in primary
34 1953 Eisenhower R 9 Stevenson D 442 89
1957 Eisenhower R Stevenson D 457 73 Term limited
35 1961 Kennedy D 11 Nixon R 303 219 15 Assassinated
36 VP Johnson D 13
1965 Johnson D Goldwater R 486 52 Defeated in primary
37 1969 Nixon R 33 Humphrey D 301 191 46
1973 Nixon R McGovern D 520 17 1 Resigned
VP Ford R 26 Defeated in presidential election
39 1977 Carter D 27 Ford R 297 240 Defeated in presidential election
40 1981 Reagan R 15 Carter D 489 49
1985 Reagan R Mondale D 525 13 Term limited
41 1989 Bush R 22 Dukakis D 426 111 Defeated in presidential election
42 1993 Clinton D 20 Bush R 370 168
1997 Clinton D Dole R 379 159 Term limited
43 2001 Bush R 34 Gore D 271 266
2005 Bush R Kerry D 286 251 Term limited
44 2009 Obama D 17 McCain R 365 173
2013 Obama D Romney R 332 206 Term limited
45 2017 Trump R Clinton D 306 232
Rank Party Rank Party Rank Party
Lincoln 1 R Monroe 16 D-R Garfield 31 R
Roosevelt, F. 2 D Obama 17 D Hoover 32 R
Washington 3 I Cleveland 18 D Nixon 33 R
Jefferson 4 D-R McKinley 19 R Bush II 34 R
Roosevelt, T. 5 R Clinton 20 D Taylor 35 W
Truman 6 D Adams, JQ 21 D-R Grant 36 R
Wilson 7 D Bush I 22 R Tyler 37 W
Jackson 8 D Taft 23 R Fillmore 38 W
Eisenhower 9 R Van Buren 24 D Harrison, W 39 W
Polk 10 D Hayes 25 R Johnson, A 40 D
Kennedy 11 D Ford 26 R Pierce 41 D
Adams, J. 12 F Carter 27 D Harding 42 R
Johnson, L. 13 D Arthur 28 R Buchanan 43 D
Madison 14 D-R Harrison, B 29 R
Reagan 15 R Coolidge 30 R
R Republican
D Democrat
W Whig
D-R Democratic-Republican party
I Independent
Presidental 4-year terms:
Republican 23
Democrat 22
Democratic Republican 7
Whig 4
Independent 2
Federalist 1
National Union 1
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Party Rank Losing Party Electoral Fraction
candidate margin of votes
1793 Washington - 3 J. Adams F 132 0 1
1789 Washington - 3 J. Adams - 69 0 1
1821 Monroe DR 16 J.Q. Adams DR 231 1 .996
1937 F. Roosevelt D 2 Landon R 523 8 .985
1985 Reagan R 15 Mondale D 525 13 .976
1973 Nixon R 33 McGovern D 520 17 .97
1805 Jefferson DR 4 Pinckney F 162 14 .92
1981 Reagan R 15 Carter D 489 49 .91
1865 Lincoln NU 1 McClellan D 212 21 .91
1965 Johnson D 13 Goldwater R 486 52 .90
1933 F. Roosevelt D 2 Hoover R 472 59 .89
1957 Eisenhower R 9 Stevenson D 457 73 .86
1853 Pierce D 41 Scott W 254 42 .86
1941 F. Roosevelt D 2 Willkie R 449 82 .85
1817 Monroe DR 16 King F 183 34 .84
1929 Hoover R 32 Smith D 444 87 .84
1953 Eisenhower R 9 Stevenson D 442 89 .83
1873 Grant R 36 Hendricks D 286 42 18 2 .82
1913 Wilson D 7 Roosevelt P 435 88 8 .82
1945 F. Roosevelt D 2 Dewey R 432 99 .81
1841 W. Harrison W 39 Van Buren D 234 60 .80
1989 Bush R 22 Dukakis D 426 111 .79
1833 Jackson D 8 Clay NR 219 49 11 7 .77
1921 Harding R 42 Cox D 404 127 .76
President Secretary of State Washington Jefferson Jefferson Madison Madison Monroe Monroe J.Q. Adams Jackson Van Buren Polk Buchanan
The possible outcomes at the end of a presidential term are:
Won reelection 22 Washington Jefferson Madison Monroe Jackson Lincoln Grant
McKinley T Roosevelt Wilson Coolidge F Roosevelt(x3) Truman
Eisenhower Johnson Nixon Reagan Clinton Bush II Obama
Retired 12 Washington Jefferson Madison Monroe Jackson Polk Buchanan
Grant Hayes Arthur T Roosevelt Coolidge
Lost reelection 11 J Adams JQ Adams Van Buren Cleveland B Harrison Taft Hoover
Ford Carter Bush I Trump
Lost in primary 8 Tyler Filmore Pierce A Johnson Cleveland Wilson Truman
L Johnson
Term limited 5 Eisenhower Reagan Clinton Bush II Obama
Died of natural causes 4 W Harrison Tayler Harding F Roosevelt
Assassinated 4 Lincoln Garfield McKinley Kennedy
Resigned 1 Nixon
Total 67
Former presidents who ran for the presidency after a term out of office: Cleveland, Van Buren, Fillmore, Grant, T. Roosevelt, Hoover. Only Cleveland succeeded.
People that lost a presidential election but later became president: J. Adams, Jefferson, J.Q. Adams, Jackson, W. Harrison, Cleveland, F. Roosevelt, Nixon.
In 1884, Arthur placed 2nd in primary voting but he didn't campaign. He had health problems and wished to retire.
In 1888, Cleveland was the incumbent president and he was renominated, and he lost the general election. In 1896, Cleveland was the incumbent president and he lost the primary.
GDP Job Workforce Home Fed spend Budget surplus
growth growth particip. own per GDP per GDP
%/yr %/yr %/yr %/yr % %/yr
Carter 3.0 3.1 .8 .2 19.5 -2.0
Reagan 3.8 2.2 .4 -.2 21.0 -3.5
Bush I 2.0 .6 .0 .1 20.5 -3.5
Clinton 4.2 2.6 .1 .4 18.5 -2.0
Bush II 2.1 .0 -.2 .0 18.5 -1.5
Obama 2.0 .9 -.5 -.5 22.0 -5.5
Data
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Votes Candidates Debates States Popular Super
(millions) delegates delegates
Democrat 31.22 3 9 50 4051 712
Republican 30.64 17 12 50 2472 0
Libertarian .03 13 21 6 n/a n/a
Green .02 6 4 35 402 0
Votes Vote % Total Popular Super States
delegates delegates delegates
Trump 14013998 44.9 1441 1441 - 36 Republican
Cruz 7822100 25.1 551 551 - 11
Kasich 4290448 13.8 161 161 - 1
Rubio 3515576 11.3 173 173 - 1
Clinton 16912545 55.2 2842 2271.5 570.5 28 Democrat
Sanders 13206428 43.1 1865 1821.5 44.5 22
O'Malley ? ? 0 1 0
Johnson 22642 59.6 n/a n/a - 5 Libertarian
McAfee 3391 8.9 n/a n/a - 0
Peterson 3066 8.1 n/a n/a - 0
Stein 13231 ? 269.5 269.5 - 34 Green
Kreml ? ? 18.5 18.5 - 1
Republican seats:
2008 2016 2018 2020
President 0 1 1 0
Prez electoral 173 306 306 232
U.S. Senate 41 51 53 50+
U.S. House 179 241 199 212
Governor 22 31 27 26
State senates 35.5 30 31
State houses 33 29 30
The strength of a party rests in the strength of the primary. The Republican party held a fair primary with diverse candidates and abundant debates whereas the Democratic primary was rigged. The Libertarian party had a robust set of candidates and debates but few watched.
To paraphrase Arrow's theorem, there does not exist a fully satisfactory election process. There exist many bad schemes that usually produce ridiculous results and there are a few good schemes (none of them perfect) that still occasionally produce ridiculuous results. Ridiculosity can be minimized by holding several rounds of elections, trimming the weakest candidates each round. The penultimate round should have exactly 3 candidates and the final round should have exactly 2 candidates.
An election with 2 candidates doesn't have pitfalls whereas pitfalls abound with more than 2 candidates. Pitfalls can be minimized by focusing on trimming the weakest candidates rather than on identifying the strongest candidates. Several rounds of gradual trimming can occur to narrow the field down to 1 candidate.
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