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For energy expansion, the best near-term options are biomass and nuclear. Hydro is maxed out, solar and wind are growing too slowly, and tidal and geothermal are too feeble. The energy lost to forest fires is substantial and can be harnessed.
The best energy source is all of them, and as much as possible from each. Make energy abundant and cheap.
Each energy source has a niche. Coal is for smelting metal, natural gas is for hydrogen production, and gasoline is for engines.
The best way to harness biomass energy is with trees, and trees can also capture carbon.
A nuclear reactor provides "high heat" (~ 925 Celsius) for producing electricity and chemicals. Reactors can also create precious metals and isotopes with neutron transmutation. A reactor's discard heat can heat a town. Radioactive waste contains valuable catalysts such as palladium and rhodium. New reactors have safety features that make meltdowns impossible. Portable reactors are easily installed and de-installed.
Energy is wealth. A nation's power consumption is tightly correlated with GDP.
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Energy → Primary materials → Manufacturing → Exports → Wealth
For most metals, the value of the metal comes from the energy required to extract it.
World mining is dominated by iron, aluminum, copper, and gold.
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A good currency is uncounterfeitable, immutable, has high value in $/kg, has low world supply, and has industrial value. These elements tend to be toward the lower right in the chart.
A currency is uncounterfeitable in terms of density if no element exists that is both more dense and more cheap. The elements with this property are iridium, platinum, rhenium, and tungsten.
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The endangered elements are:
Element Source Uses Cobalt DR Congo Lithium-ion batteries, steel alloy Lithium Australia, Chile Lithium-ion batteries Rare-earths China All of the electronics industry, especially solar cells and magnets Germanium China Fiber optics Tin China Solder and bronze Tungsten China Superhard materials in the form of tungsten carbide Scandium China, Ukraine, Russia Aluminum alloy Phosphorus China, Israel, Canada Fertilizer Potassium China, Israel, Canada Fertilizer
There isn't enough lithium and cobalt to build an electric car for everyone in the world.
The ultimite limit for food and biomass is fertilizer, and this hinges on phosphorus and potassium.
Cobalt is the dominant cost for lithium-ion batteries, and copper is the dominant cost for solar cells, wind turbines, and electric motors.
Lithium-ion batteries can be made with or without cobalt, although cobalt is required if you want large energy/mass.
The critical metals are copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel, neodymium, silver, and rare Earths. Cobalt and rare Earths are a concern because they're scarse (42% of cobalt goes to batteries) and because they come from politically unstable places.
Metal content:
Cost Mining Reserves Battery Battery SolarCell SolarCell Wind Wind Motor Motor
$/kg Bkg/yr Bkg kg/MJoule $/MJoule kg/kWatt $/kWatt kg/kW $/kW kg/kWatt $/kWatt
Lithium 20 .6 30 .023 .46 - - - - - -
Cobalt 30 .12 7 .20 6.0 - - - - - -
Nickel 15 2.2 80 .20 3.0 - - - - - -
Copper 6 18 700 - - 5 30 4 24 .036 .22
Neodymium 25 .01 .6 - - - - .014 .28 .0062 .16
Silver 450 .026 .53 - - .034 15 - - - -
All lithium-ion batteries contain lithium and most contain an equal number of lithium and cobalt atoms. A cobalt atom is substantially more massive than a lithium atom and so batteries have much more cobalt mass than lithium mass. Cobalt reserves are smaller than lithium reserves and so we will run out of cobalt before we run out of lithium.
For a typical car battery, the cobalt cost is:
Energy = 100 MJoules Cobalt cost per MJoule = 6.0 $/MJoule Cobalt cost = 600 $
If we make 1 billion electric cars then the total cobalt mass is:
Energy = 100 MJoules Cobalt mass per MJoule = .2 kg Cobalt mass per car = 20 kg Number of cars = 1 billion cars Total cobalt mass = 20 Bkg Cobalt mining = .12 Bkg/year Cobalt reserves = 7 Bkg
The cobalt required far exceeds annual mining and it even exceeds reserves. Not all batteries will be able to have cobalt.
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World Fertilizer Reserves Carbon Carbon Element Usual form
Bkg/year Bkg/year Bkg kg/kg Bkg/year $/kg
Nitrogen 38 30.0 Infinite 1.09 32.7 5.66 Urea CO(NH2)2
Phosphorus 22 11.0 260 1.30 14.3 56 Monoammonium phosphate NH4H2PO4
Potassium 34 11.0 3240 2.64 29.0 11.8 Potassium chloride KCl
"Carbon kg/kg" is the carbon emitted to produce 1 kg of element.
"Carbon Bkg/year" is the carbon emitted by the world due to the fertilizer element.
"Element $/kg" is the price of the element per kg.
The plot shows how much energy the world expends per year for primary materials. The materials that consume the most energy are are steel, plastic, hydrogen, wood, and food.
Hydrogen is a primary chemical. 45% of hydrogen becomes ammonia and 80% of ammonia becomes fertilizer.
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Dot area scales with power production.
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Nuclear reserves are infinite, especially if you harness thorium.
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Mining prowess hinges on energy. America dominates mining for only one element: beryllium.
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Energy/Carbon Energy/mass
MJoule/kg MJoules/kg
Natural gas 73 55
Oil 53 46
Coal 38 32
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Plant biomass is dominate by trees. Farm biomass is dominated by cane, corn, rice, and wheat.
There is far more biomass on land than in the oceans. This is because oceans are nutrient-poor.
Domestic mammals outweigh wild mammals, and domestic birds outweigh wild birds. Cows dominate domestic mammal biomass. Cows and humans have the same biomass.
Wild mammal biomass is dominated by whales.
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Land carrying capacity hinges on fertilizer, water, sun, technology, and mechanization.
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Livestock can harness land that is unfit for crops. Crops require prime land or you can't compete. Livestock are also easier to farm than crops.
As evidence for the importance of cows, cows have more biomass than all other farm animals combined. The distribution of world land is:
World
fraction
Crops, seasonal .109 Sugar cane, wheat, corn, rice, etc.
Crops, permanent .012 Trees that bear fruits and nuts
Pastures for grazing .263
Wheat produces .22 Watts/meter2 of food power, and grass-fed cows produce .019 Watts/meter2. Wheat produces 12 times as much food power as cows.
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American wheat yield is typically .5 kg/meter2, which can support 1800 people/km2.
Wheat production per area = .5 kg/meter2 Wheat Calories/kg = 3400 Calories/kg 1 Calorie = 4184 Joule/kg Wheat energy/kg = 14.2 MJoule/kg Wheat food energy production = .22 Watt/meter2 Human power consumption = 120 Watt Area required for 1 human = 545 meter2 Land carrying capacity = 1800 People/km2
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Power/Area Install Cost Type of energy
Watt/meter2 Watt/$ MJoule/$
Natural gas plant 4000 1.2 60 Electric
Coal plant 4000 .4 30 Electric
Nuclear plant 4000 .2 22 Electric
Hydro 100 .4 60 Electric
Solar photovoltaic 30 .5 80 Electric
Icemaking in winter 20 Embodied energy of ice. Use a pond to make ice.
Wind, onshore 10 .7 90 Electric
Wind, offshore 12 .15 45 Electric
Algae 2 Biomass → heat
Trees 1 Biomass → heat
Grass in Brazil 1 Biomass → heat
Grass in Midwest .5 Biomass → heat
Sugar cane in Brazil .5 Food calories
Wheat in Midwest .2 Food calories
Cows in Midwest .02 Food calories
Heat can be converted to electric energy with 40 percent efficiency.
Farming cost inputs:
Iowa Iowa Iowa Brazil
cows corn soy soy
$/acre $/acre $/acre $/acre
Land 56 256 256 60
Labor 22.9 42.7 33.6 20
Seed 0 114.4 49.2 25
Machinery 5.2 70.2 64.5 40
Other 5.2 31.9 26.9 16
Nitrogen 27.2 71.7 0 0
Phosphorus 11.7 29.6 19.5 25
Potassium 12.0 18.3 27.9 35
Lime 0 15.7 15.7 15
Herbicide 4.6 39.6 48.7 40
Insecticide 0 18.4 0 10
Fungicide 0 0 0 25
Other pesticide 0 0 0 4
Total 137.9 770.8 542.0 315
The yield in Iowa is 202 bushels of corn per acre and 62 bushels of soy per acre.
Data from Iowa State University
USA and Brazil are soy superpowers. Data from 2016.
Produce Export Import
Bkg/yr Bkg/yr Bkg/yr
World 330
USA 117 58 0
Brazil 96 76 0
Argentina 59 2.1 5
India 14.0 0 0
China 12.1 0 86
Paraguay 9.2 6.0 0
Canada 5.8 4.9 0
We need both EVs and GVs. EVs can't to long distance, and small GVs can't be quiet.
EVs are simple. Gasoline vehicles come with baggage like gears, powertrains, combustion, flywheels, mufflers, etc., none of which are present in EVs. In an EV, the powertrain is wires. Sports car manufacturers have embraced EVs.
For cities, noise is an issue. Small GVs are loud. Small EVs are ideal for cities.
Long-range freeway driving requires gasoline. Power scales as speed cubed and range scales as Speed-2.
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Flying cars give access to rugged rural terrain.
Flying electric cars are easy because lithium batteries have enough power/mass. For 1-person flying car, the minimum power/mass required to hover is 200 Watts/kg, and a lithium battery can produce 800 Watts/kg.
Electric motors contribute neglibly to the mass of the car because they have a power/mass much larger than the battery (7000 Watts/kg). The propeller weighs even less than the motor.
Because motors are easy, a flying vehicle can have many motors and propellers, which helps with safety. Also, the more propellers a vehicle has, the easier it is to fly, because it reduces the minimum power/mass required to fly. The minimum power/mass to fly scales as the number of propellers to the -1/6 power.
Power/Mass
Watts/kg
Minimum for fixed-wing flight 100
Minimum for hovering flight 200
Minimum vehicle power/mass 300 Should be easily able to hover. Use 1.5 times the minimum power/mass to shover
Lithium battery 800
Electric motor 7000
Electric generator 100
An electric generator can't power a flying car because the power/mass is too low.
The neutrons in a fission reactor can transmute elements and turn a cheap element into an expensive element. Neutron transmutation moves an element one spot to the right in the periodic table.
The most profitable transmutation is to turn tungsten into rhenium, osmium, iridium, platinum, and gold.
Tungsten is transmutable. Tungsten-186 has a large neutron capture cross section (35 barns).
Transuranic isotopes are useful for rocketry.
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Burnt fission fuel is the new gold. It contains valuable palladium and rhodium, which are great catalysts. One kg of uranium costs $100 and produces $13000 of rhodium and $1600 of palladium. The elements produced by the fission of one kg of U-238 are:
Mass Value of Value of element Half life
element in burnt fuel
gram $/kg $/kg year
Rhodium-103 26.1 500000 13000 Stable
Palladium-106 22.4 72000 1600 Stable
Xenon 44.6 1800 80 Stable A mix of Xenon-131 and Xenon-132
Technetium-99 51.4 ? ? 211000
Strontium-90 11.8 ? ? 28.8
Rhodium and palladium are important as catalysts. Technetium is important because there are no stable isotopes and it doesn't occur in nature. Strontium-90 is important because it can be used as a radioisotope battery. Technetium-99 and Strontium-90 don't have well-established market prices because they only come from fission reactors. Xenon is easy to extract because it's a noble gas.
The numbers are for fission by fast neutrons. Fission by slow neutrons produces similar numbers.
The only nations engaged in large-scale reactor construction are China an India. China has never shut down a reactor. The USA shut down half of its reactors.
Operational Constructing Shut Aborted Melt Blew up
down downs
USA 94 2 41 2 1 Three Mile Island
France 56 1 12 0
China 51 20 0 0
Russia 38 4 9 19
Japan 33 4 23 0 3 Fukushima
S Korea 24 4 2 0
India 20 10 1 0
Canada 19 0 6 0
Ukraine 15 2 3 13 1 1 Chernobyl
UK 13 2 31 7
Belgium 7 0 1 0
Czech Rep 6 0 0 0
Germany 6 0 30 4
Pakistan 6 1 0 0
Finland 4 1 0 0
Hungar 4 0 0 0
Slovakia 4 2 3 0
Argentina 3 1 0 0
Brazil 2 1 0 0
UAE 1 3 0 0
Iran 1 1 0 0
Turkey 0 3 0 0
Italy 0 0 4 2
N Korea 0 3 1 3
"Constructing" = Under construction
"Shut down" = Previously operational, then shut down
"Aborted" = Construction began but was aborted.
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Sea level rise is easily countered by creating new land. The land lost to sea level rise is 53000 km3 and the land created artificially is 25000 km2. New land is usually worth more than the cost of creating it.
Gain Loss
km2 km2
World 25000 53375
China 13500
Netherlands 7000
South Korea 1550
USA 1000
Japan 500 2190
Ecuador 28500
Vietnam 14700
Sweden 3290
Iraq 3070
Bulgaria 2030
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Solar system exploration begins with lunar ice, which can be used for rocket fuel, life support, and radiation shielding. The moon's low gravity makes it easy to launch ice into space. Lunar ice is converted into hydrogen + oxygen rocket fuel, moved to low-Earth-orbit, and used to help rockets go from there to other destinations. Article.
The moon likely has metal asteroid craters. We should be prospecting the moon.
The ideal place for space telescopes is L2. We should have a manned base station at L2 to assemble colossal segmented telescopes on-site. Support the station with lunar ice.
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The future of rocketry is the fission hydrogen thermal rocket. Such a rocket has a higher exhaust speed than chemical H2+O2 rockets, and a higher power/mass than an ion rocket.
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A hydrogen thermal rocket can be turbocharged with a fission afterburner. A fission reactor produces neutrons, and the neutrons trigger fission in the afterburner fuel. The fission fuel should have a large fission cross section, for example californium-251, americium-242m, and californium-249.
The reactor that produces the neutrons should have a large value for neutrons/fission, for example californium-251, curium-245, and californium-249.
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The American frontier was opened by rail. The frontier of the future is space.
SpaceX has the world's lowest launch cost at $2300, and they lead the world for material launched to orbit. The table shows the total payload launched to orbit in 2020. SpaceX outlaunches NASA and China. SpaceX also has no fails from 2020.
Many oligarchs that are not named Musk have rocket companies, but they are all dwarfed by SpaceX.
The future of launch is air launch. Air launch allows you to start from above most of the atmosphere, and you can go horizontal immediately.
Tons launched to orbit for 2022, up to October 6.
Payload
tons
China National 193
Russia National 84
Europe National 40
S Korea National 3
India National 2
Japan National 0
Canada National 0
America SpaceX 989 Elon Musk
America ULA 108 United Launch Alliance = Lockheed Martin & Boeing
America Northrup Grumman 8
America Rocket Lab 2 Peter Beck
America Firefly 1
America Virgin Orbit 1
America Blue Origin 0 Jeff Bezos
America Stratolaunch 0 Paul Allen and Burt Rutan
America VOX 0
America NASA 0
America Relativity Space 0
America Astra 0
America ABL 0
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In a metal asteroid, the most valuable metals are osmium, rhodium, nickel, platinum, and palladium.
A cubic metal asteroid 100 meters in size has a mass of 1 billion kg, and the value of the metals is:
Concentration Value Value in asteroid
ppm $/kg Billion $
Osmium 7.6 1600000 12
Rhodium 4.1 500000 2.0
Nickel 67000 16 1.1
Platinum 19 35000 .7
Palladium 3.8 72000 .3
Cobalt 6300 33 .2
Iron 910000 .15 .1
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Supercomputers are critical to weather prediction and climate modeling. The farther ahead we can predict weather, the greater the economic payoff.
Supercomputing is driven by speed/$ and mobile computing is driven by speed/power.
Speed per dollar = 2 GFlop/$ (CPU) Speed per dollar = 40 GFlop/$ (GPU) Memory, RAM = .2 GByte/$ Memory, solid state = 7 GByte/$ Memory, disk = 33 GByte/$ Speed per power = 200 GFlop/Watt (GPU) Battery energy per mass = 1000 MJoule/kg Battery power per mass = 1000 Watt/kg
The speed of a supercomputer is
Supercomputer speed = S = 2FCV Floating point operations per second Clock frequency = F Hertz Cores = C Number of independent cores Vectorization = V Number of vectors per core. Vectors aren't independent. They all execute the same task
Clock speed is not increasing. Vectorization is increasing.
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China has never shut down a nuclear reactor
Only China and India are engaged in large-scale reactor construction.
Nations that have shut down or aborted a large number of reactors include USA, UK, Germany, Japan, Russia, and Ukraine.
"Constructing" = Under construction
"Shut down" = Previously operational, then shut down
"Aborted" = Construction began but was aborted.
Operational Constructing Shut Aborted Melted
down down
USA 94 2 41 2
France 56 1 12
China 51 20
Russia 38 4 9 19
Japan 33 4 23 3 Fukushima
S Korea 24 4 2
India 20 10 1
Canada 19 6
Ukraine 15 2 3 13 1 Chernobyl
UK 13 2 31 7
Belgium 7 1
Czech Rep 6
Germany 6 30 4
Pakistan 6 1
Finland 4 1
Hungar 4
Slovakia 4 2 3
Argentina 3 1
Brazil 2 1
UAE 1 3
Iran 1 1
Turkey 3
Italy 4 2
N Korea 3 1 3
Adding 1 kg carbon to the atmosphere increases greenhouse heating by 4.1 Watts.
There are 2 classes of geoengineering: Carbon management (usually trees) and greenhouse warming management (usually cloud seeding and aerosols). The above number allows you to compare costs.
A tree captures carbon at a rate of .5 kg/meter2/year, which decreases greenhouse heating by 2.0 Watts/meter2.
"Albedo" is reflectivity.
The difference in reflected flux between trees and grass was measured to be 8
Watts/meter2 at 40° latitude, where solar flux is 190
Watts/meter2, and this corresponds to an albedo difference of .04.
Williams, Gu, &
Jiao (2021).
If you replace an arctic conifer tree with snow, the albedo change is
".52". The average solar power at 60° latitude is 110
Watts/meter2, so the change in power is 57
Watts/meter2. This the most extreme case. The realistic change is
less, because there isn't always snow on the ground, and because trees are
sometimes covered in snow.
The density of a typical forest is:
The growth rate of a typical forest is:
Wood is 1/2 carbon and 1% nitrogen.
The fertilizer requirement for nitrogen is:
Trees also need potassium, phosphorus, calcium, magnesium, and sulfur, and
their total cost is similar to that of the nitrogen. The total fertilizer cost
is double the nitrogen cost.
Bamboo is a fast-growing tree and it's easily harvested, because it's light on side branches.
A new bamboo forest achieves full leaf coverage early, whereas an oak forest takes longer.
The largest trees are sequoias, redwoods, douglas firs, and eucalyptus. Douglas firs
can grow in the arctic.
Trees should be planted close to water. For existing trees, fertilizer should
go to large trees that are close to water.
If possible, plant trees so that their shadows are cast over water, because
trees have a larger albedo than water.
Plant trees that produce nuts, because birds are more likely to get the nuts
than insects. Also, the more birds, the fewer insects.
An old forest is carbon-neutral and a young forest captures carbon. Replace old forests
with young forests, or harness the deadwood in old forest.
World forest carbon:
Using trees to offset atmospheric carbon gain requires 4 Mkm2 of
forest, and world forests total 39 Mkm2. Forests capture carbon at a
rate of .5 kg/meter2/year.
Fertilizing the ocean with iron causes large-scale biomass growth, and when it dies it takes the carbon to
the bottom of the ocean.
In the ocean the microbe nutrient requirement is:
Iron is insoluble in the ocean and is usually the limiting nutrient. Between
nitrogen and phosphorus, nitrogen is usually the limiting nutrient.
A small amount of iron fertilizer can capture a large amount of carbon.
Diatoms are microbes with silicon walls as opposed to conventional lipid membranes.
If silicon is present then silicon microbes outcompete lipid microbes because
silicon walls cost 8% as much energy to make as lipid membranes.
Diatoms are good carbon fixers because when they die they sink to the bottom of the ocean,
and the carbon stays there.
The best place to fertilize the ocean with iron is the Antarctic Atlantic, where iron is
scarce and silicon, nitrogen, and phosphorus are abundant. This is also the region where the
ocean currents flow downward.
Ocean concentrations of phosphorus, nitrogen, and silicon:
Jet Propulsion Laboratory designed a space mirror with the goal of minimizing the
mass per area. It consists of mylar coated with aluminum.
A space mirror can cool the Earth. Greenhouse gases generated by humans have
increased the sun's effective brightness by 1.5 Watts/meter2. The
size of a mirror required to cancel this is 560000 km2, which costs
3.4 trillion dollars to launch.
Antarctic icebergs can be moved to places in the tropics where sun is abundant but water is scarce.
The energy required to move the iceberg costs far less than the value of the freshwater delivered.
Ocean currents can help save energy. The South Indian Current brings icebergs to Australia,
The South Pacific current brings icebergs to Chile, and the South Atlantic current brings icebergs
to Africa.
We calculate the energy required to move an iceberg for a typical iceberg.
The iceberg should move as slow as possible but it should move fast enough to
reach its destination before melting. We assume a travel time of 1 year, and
this determines the velocity. Presumably, measures can be taken to slow
melting such as covering the iceberg with a white tarp.
Asteroids have vast kinetic energy. A 1 km asteroid has as much energy as America's yearly output.
Asteroid energy can be harnessed with a lake. An asteroid blasts the water out of a lake,
and then hydro energy is extracted as the lake refills.
You need a big source of water to extract the hydropower. The crater should be
near a large river.
Alaska is naturally prone to large
earthquakes and is lightly inhabited.
The asteroid should be large enough to matter, but not large enough to cause excessive damage.
The sweet spot is an asteroid around 300 meters in size, which makes a crater around 5 km in diameter
and .5 km deep.
Volcanoes often cause global cooling, and the table shows all major volcanic cooling events.
Canada fills with snow by October. If you hit a lake in Canada in September, you
can make early snow and decrease the Albedo.
Meteors can uncover deep coal. Hilt's law states that the deeper the coal, the
higher the quality tends to be. When coal is formed, the higher the formation
temperature, the higher the quality.
The water launched by an asteroid strike can irrigate. 1/5 of rain that falls on
land becomes rivers and lakes and it can be put back in the atmosphere.
Aerosols such as sulfuric acid cool the Earth if they're in the stratosphere.
An asteroid strike can launch aerosols.
An asteroid impact on a nutrient deposit launches nutrients into the air and fertilizes
the Earth.
The macronutrients are phosphorus, potassium, magnesium, and calcium.
A metal asteroid landing on Earth solves the world's iron problem and save us energy
on smelting. Metal asteroids also have platinum-group metals, which are great catalysts.
Metal asteroids are dominantly iron, nickel, and cobalt, and this is good alloy.
In 1 kg of asteroid,
Asteroids can be propelled with hydrogen bombs. Article.
Water:
Sunspot number correlates with solar intensity.
Solar intensity has long-term variations and these impact climate. The sun is presently dimming.
Carbon-14 is a proxy for solar intensity.
Sunspots impact cosmic rays, and cosmic rays have an impact on climate by forming
clouds.
Nations to the upper right tend to have low wealth inequality and nations to the lower left tend to
have high wealth inequality.
Ideally, a nation should have large wealth/capita, large GDP/capita, and
small wealth Gini. The nations that stand out in this regard are Norway, Australia, and Japan.
The wealth Gini is more sensitive to millionaires than billionaires. A nation can have a low
wealth Gini and also be billionaire heavy.
The world's undisputed economic superpower is the USA, in terms of wealth/capita,
millionaires, and billionaires.
The Gini index characterizes the equality of a distribution.
If everyone has the same wealth then the Gini index is 0 and if all the wealth
is possessed by one person then the Gini index is 1.
In the above plot the Gini index is defined as
<0table width="100%">
America has a rich history of frontiersmanship.
The transcontinental railway was started in 1863 and completed in 1869, opening
up the West to rail transport.
In 1828, rail crossed the Appalachian mountains.
By 1860 The North and Midwest constructed networks that linked every city. In
the heavily settled Midwestern Corn Belt, over 80 percent of farms were within
8 km of a railway. The USA had 28900 railroad miles and the UK had 10400.
Telegraph km in 1852.
The first successful transatlantic cable linking America and the UK was completed in 1866.
It was made possible by William Thompson's invention of the mirror galvanometer in 1857,
for detecting telegraph signals.
American suspension bridges have held the world record for length from 1849 to 1981.
In 1939 the world's 9 longest suspension bridges were American.
America was the first to harness large-scale hydroelectric power when Westinghouse
and Tesla built a 37 MWatt plant at Niagara falls in 1895. They also solved the
problem of long-distance transfer of electricity, inventing the alternating current
method.
By 1930 America had built 10 dams with a height of at least 90 meters.
In 1945 America had the three highest dams in the world, the Hoover Dam, the Shasta Dam,
and the Grand Couleee Dam.
Tesla and Westinghouse built the first large-scale hydro-powered electricity plant at
Niagara falls in 1895. It generated 37 megawatts of power and turbocharged American manufacturing.
The first naval battle involving iron ships was in the civil war in 1862, between the
North's Merrimac and the South's Virginia.
Steel production in 1913 in billion kg.
The Erie Canal, completed in 1825, was the second longest canal in the world.
Airports that are far from a major pro sports franchise include:
Data for 2019.
The measures of the strength of a college are:
Large endowment/student
The plot shows these measures for American and Canadian colleges. Colleges that are in peril of failing
are to the upper left, and are in small red font.
MIT is the most dominant college for student choice and SAT score. Student
choice rankings come from parchment.com.
The following plot shows the dominant STEM colleges.
Student choice rankings are not well correlated with the USNews rankings.
Albedo
Water .07
Forest, conifer .10
Forest, deciduous .16
Grass .20
Crop .20
Snow .62
Latitude Power at Earth surface, averaged over the year, in Watts/meter2.
0 230
15 250
30 210
45 180
60 110
Wood density = 11 kg/meter2
Wood energy/mass = 20 MJoule/kg
Wood energy/meter2 = 220 MJoule/meter2
Wood value/kg = .036 $/kg
Wood value/meter2 = .4 $/meter2
Wood production rate = 1.0 kg/meter2/year
Energy production rate = 20 MJoule/meter2/year = .6 Watts/meter2
Wood nitrogen mass fraction = n = .01
Price of nitrogen in fertilizer = p = 5.7 $/kg
Nitrogen price / kg wood = P = p n = .057 $/kg
World fraction Forest Deforestation Fires
% Bkg Bkg/yr Bkg/yr
South America 22 96000 400 50
Russia 21 92000 ? 100
Africa 17 73000 240 50
Canada 12.6 55000 0 50
USA 7.9 34800 0 15
S.E. Asia 5.9 26000 -120 10
China 5.3 23300 -170 20
E.U. 4.1 18000 -40 3
Asian Islands 3.6 15800 30 10
Australia + NZ 3.2 14100 ? 20
C. America 2.7 11900 60 5
World 1000 440000 350 250
Carbon in atmosphere = 880 trillion kg
Carbon in plants = 550 trillion kg
Carbon in trees = 500 trillion kg
Total human-generated carbon = 300 trillion kg
Forest carbon capture rate = 45 trillion kg/year
Atmospheric carbon increase rate = 4 trillion kg/year
World forest area = 39 million km2
New forest neeeded to offset carbon= 4 million km2
Deforestation rate = .35 trillion kg/year
Total wood carbon harvested =4.56 trillion kg/year Wood for power + wood for industry
Wood carbon for biomass power =1.59 trillion kg/year
Wood carbon for industry =2.97 trillion kg/year
Element Relative mass
Carbon 1
Nitrogen .18
Phosphorus .024
Iron .000044
Mirror surface density = 6 grams/meter2
Mirror thickness = .0043 mm (Mylar coated with aluminum)
Mylar density = 1.39 g/cm3
Aluminum density = 2.70 g/cm3
Greenhouse gas forcing preindustrial = 1.5 Watts/meter2
Greenhouse gas forcing now = 3.0 Watts/meter2
Solar forcing change = I = 1.5 Watts/meter2
Solar forcing increase rate = .031 Watts/meter2/year
Earth surface area = A = 510 Million km2
Solar power change = P = IA = 765 TWatts
Solar intensity = I = 1361 Watts/meter2
Mirror area = A = P/I =560000 km2 = (750 km)2
Mirror mass/area = D = .006 kg/meter2
Mirror mass = M = DA = 3.4 billion kg
Launch cost per kg = 1000 $/kg
Mirror launch cost = 3.4 trillion $
_(NSF).jpg)
Energy required to move an iceberg = Constant * Distance moved * Velocity2
Iceberg height = Z = .5 km
Iceberg sice length = X = 10 km
Density of ice = d = 917 kg/m3
Density of seawater = D = 1025 kg/m3
Iceberg mass = M = d X2 Z = 46 trillion kg
Iceberg distance traveled= L = 1000 km (Assume ocean currents help)
Iceberg travel time = T = 1 year
Iceberg speed = V = L/T = .03 m/s
Drag force = F = ½ D X Z V2 = 2.3 million Newtons
Drag energy = E = F L = 2300 GJoules
Drag power = P = F V = 69 kWatts
Energy cost = e = 36 MJoules/$
Freshwater value per kg = z = .0001 $/kg
Iceberg freshwater value = Z = M z = 5 billion $
Region Volcano Magma Index Year Temperature change Sulfur dioxide
(km3) Kelvin MTon
Philippines Pinatubo 25 6 1991 -.2 20
Mexico El Chicon 5 1982 ? 7
Alaska Novarupta 28 6 1912 +.2
Guatemala Santa Maria 20 6 1902 -.1
Indonesia Krakatoa 20 6 1883 -.4
Indonesia Tambora 160 7 1815 -.5 Caused the "Year without a summer"
Iceland Laki 14 6 1783 -1
Peru Huenaputina 30 6 1600 ?
Vanuatu 108 7 1452 ?
New Zealand Tarawera 5 1315 ? Famine of 1315-1317
Indonesia Rinjani 10 7 1258 ? Caused the Little Ice Age that ended the Viking era
Iceland Hekla 3 1 5 1159 ?
North Korea Paektu 110 7 946 ?
Unknown 7 535 -2
Indonesia Lake Toba 2800 8 -72000 -1
Mass Metal Value
gram $/kg $
Iron 910 .75 .68
Nickel 67 16 1.07
Cobalt 6.3 33 .21
Platinum .19 35000 6.6
Osmium .0076 1600000 12.1
Rhodium .0041 500000 2.05
Palladium .0038 72000 .27
Earth mean temperature = 288 Kelvin
Current rate of increase = 1.7 Kelvin/century
Temperature in 1800 = -.9 Kelvin compared to present
Temperature in 1000 = -.5 Kelvin compared to present
Atmosphere CO2 fraction = .00041
CO2 fraction in 1700 = .00027
CO2 fraction last ice age = .00018 (1 million years ago)
CO2 fraction increase rate = .000002 per year
Atmospheric carbon =880000⋅109 kg = 121000 tons/person
Gas Year Year Contribution Radiation Half life
1750 2015 to warming change (years)
(ppm) (ppm) (Watts/m2)
H2O 36-72%
CO2 280 395 9-26% 1.88 60
CH4 .7 1.79 4-9% .49 12
O3 .237 .337 3-7% .4 .05
N2O .270 .325 .17 114
CCl2F2 0 .000527 .169 100
CCl3F 0 .000235 .061 60
CHClF2 0 .00022 .046 12
"ppm" stands for parts per million.
"Radiation change" is the change in power absorbed by the Earth due to the
molecule, with the change tabulated from 1750 to the present.
"Half life" is the half life in the atmosphere. The sun regenerates 12% of the
ozone layer each day.
A halocarbon is a molecule composed of carbon and halogens (fluorine, chlorine,
bromine, iodine). There are no natural sources of halocarbons and so the
pre-industrial level is zero.
Sea level rise since 1870 = 225 mm
Sea level rise if Greenland melts = 7200 mm
Sea level rise if Antarctica melts = 61100 mm
Total rate of sea level rise = 2.8 mm/year 3.3
Greenland melting rate = .6 mm/year .049
Antarctica melting rate = .2 mm/year .026
Glacier melting rate = .3 mm/year 1.2
Thermal expansion rate = .8 mm/year 1.4
Acceleration of sea level rise = .013 mm/year/year
Ocean heat gain = 5 ZJoules/year
Volume Change
kkm3 km3/yr
Ocean 1338000 1200
Groundwater 23400
Ground ice 300
Lake 176.4
Mountains 40.6
Atmosphere 12.9
Swamp 11.5
River 2.12
Biomass 1.12
Ice, Antarctica 21600 -191
Ice, Greenland 2340 -247
Ice, Canada islands 83.5 -60
Ice, Alaska 44.6 -50
Ice, Russia, NE 33.8 -2
Ice, Himalayas 23.7 -26
Ice, Svalbard 13.3 -5
Ice, Andes, South 11.7 -29
Ice, Iceland 8.7 -10
Ice, Canada, West 2.6 -14
Ice, Scandinavia .8 -2
Ice, Swiss Alps .3 -2
Ice, New Zealand .3 0
Ice, Caucuses .2 -1
Ice, Russian islands -11
Ice, Andes, North -4
.png)
Atmosphere temperature rise= .017 Kelvin/year (.9 Kelvin since 1800)
Sea level rise = 2.8 mm/year (225 mm since 1800)
Atmosphere CO2 frac = .0035 (.0027 in 1800)
Atmosphere carbon =720 Gtons
Photosynthesis of carbon =120 Gtons/year
Human carbon emissions = 9 Gtons/year = 1240 kg/person/year
Energy produced = .57 ZJoules/year = 78.6 GJ/person/year = 2490 Watts/person
Electricity produced = .067 ZJoules/year = 9.2 GJ/person/year = 292 Watts/person
Food = .027 ZJoules/year = 3.7 GJ/person/year = 117 Watts/person = 2500 Cal/person/day
Sunlight energy =3850 ZJoules/year
Wind energy = 2.25 ZJoules/year
Photosynthesis of biomass = 3.00 ZJoules/year
Ocean heat gain = 7.5 ZJoules/year
World power = 18 TWatts = 4500 Watts/person
Energy cost = 16 T$/year = 2210 $/person/year (27.8 $/GJoule)
Population = 7.254 billion
Food = 1.58 Tkg/year = 218 kg/person/year (As carbs)
Earth land area =148.9 Mkm2 = 2.0 Hectares/person
Rainfall over land =107000 km3/year =14800 tons/person/year
River flow = 37300 km3/year = 5140 tons/person/year
Water total use = 9700 km3/year = 1390 tons/person/year
Water for agriculture = 1526 km3/year = 218 tons/person/year
Water for home use = 776 km3/year = 111 tons/person/year
Water desalinated = 36 km3/year = 5 tons/person/year
Rainfall increase per year = .20 mm/year (Rainfall is increasing with time)
The above table can be used to convert various quantities, such as:
Energy of hydrocarbon food 17 MJoules/kg
Agricultural water required to produce food 1000 litres/kg (in the form of carbohydrates)
Electricity cost 100 $/MWh = 2.78⋅10-8 $/Joule
Agricultural water required to produce food 1000 litres/kg (in the form of carbohydrates)
World average 722000 people per kg3 of water used
Sun intensity average = 1366.0 Watts/meter2
Sun intensity at sunspot maximum = 1367.0 Watts/meter2
Sun intensity at sunspot minimum = 1365.1 Watts/meter2
The "wealth Gini" is an indicator of wealth inequality. The larger the wealth Gini, the larger the
wealth inequality. If everyone has the same wealth then the wealth Gini is 0 and if all the wealth
is possessed by one person then the wealth Gini is 1.
Nations with a large wealth and small wealth Gini include Japan, Italy, The Netherlands, and the UK.
Some nations are heavy in billionaires, such as India, China, Finland, and
Hong Kong. Define the "billionaire heaviness" as the fraction of
billionaires to millionaires.
Nations that have a low billionaire heaviness include Japan,
the New Zealand, Hungary, and Poland.
The nations with large wealth per capita, low wealth inequality, and low billionaire
heaviness are Japan and Spain.
The "wealth Gini" measures wealth inequality and the "Gatsby Gini" measures opportunity
inequality, and they are together depicted in the "Gatsby plot".
Opportunity equality is synonymous with upward mobility.
Nations with both a small wealth inequality and a small opportunity inequality include
Denmark, Norway, and Finland.
Area of the grey reagion = A
Area of the blue region = B
Gini index = G = A/(A+B)
Percentile Wealth Fracion of total wealth
M$
1 10400000 .35
2 7000000
3 4500000
4 2600000
5 2200000 .62
10 1187000 .73
20 499000 .85
Billion $
Jeff Bezos 131 Amazon
Bill Gates 96 Microsoft
Warren Buffett 83 Berkshire Hathaway
Larry Ellison 62 Oracle
Mark Zuckerberg 62 Facebook
Larry Page 60 Alphabet
Charles Koch 50 Koch Industries
David Koch 50 Koch Industries
Sergey Brin 50 Alphabet
Michael Bloomberg 49 Bloomberg LP
Jim Walton 45 Walmart
S. Walton 44 Walmart
Alice Walton 44 Walmart
Steve Balmer 41 Microsoft, LA Clippers
Sheldon Adelson 35 Las Vegas Sands Corp
Rupert Murdoch >10 Fox News
Michael Dell >10 Dell
Elon Musk >10 Tesla
Carl Icahn >10
Charles Schwab >10
George Lucas >4
George Soros >4
Steve Spielberg >4
Gordon Moore >4
Ross Perot >4
Bob Kraft >4
Tom Steyer
John Arnold
Donald Trump
Mark Cuban
California 165 Michigan 10 Missouri 6
New York 118 Pennsylvania 10 Virginia 5
Texas 56 Colorado 10
Florida 58 Tennessee 10
Massachusetts 17 Wyoming 9
Illinois 17 Wisconsin 9
Connecticut 17 Arizona 9
Georgia 13 New Jersey 8
Washington 12 Maryland 8
Nevada 11 Ohio 6
Billion $
Apple 780
Alphabet 749
Microsoft 736
Amazon 728
Berkshire H. 450
Facebook 376
Johnson & J. 346
JPMorgan Chase 325
Trillion $
World wealth total 400
World stock markets 80
Gold, world reserves 10.9
World paper currencies 7
World cryptocurrencies 2.0
Silver, world reserves .01
Land
Buildings
Vehicles
Stock, New York 22.9
Stock, NASDAQ 10.9
Stock, Japan 5.7
Stock, London 4.6
Stock, Shanghai 4.0
Stock, Hong Kong 3.9
Stock, Euronext 3.9
Stock, Toronto 3.3
Stock, Shenzhen 2.5
Stock, Bombay 2.1
Stock, India National 2.0
Stock, Deutsche Borse 1.86
Stock, Switzerland 1.53
Stock, South Korea 1.46
Stock, NASDAQ Nordic 1.37
Stock, Australia 1.33
Stock, Taiwan .97
Stock, Brazil .94
Gold 10.9 60000 $/kg
Silver .044 .044 605 $/kg
Currency, USA 1.98
Currency, Europe 1.38
Currency, China 1.15
Currency, Japan 1.0
Currency, India .425
Currency, Russia .158
Currency, UK .104
Currency, Switz. .090
Currency, S. Korea .086
Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin 1.09
Cryptocurrency, Ethereum .210
Cryptocurrency, Binance .047
Cryptocurrency, Tether .041
Cryptocurrency, Cardano .038
Cryptocurrency, Polkadot .034
Cryptocurrency, XRP .025
.png)
People km2 Acres/homestead
1889 50000 8100 40
1991 20000 160
1992 14000
1993 40000 24240 160
USA 37000
UK 2500
Prussia 2300
Austria 1600
Canada 1400
France 1100
_under_the_Verrazano_Narrows_Bridge.jpg)
Year Length World record
Wheeling 1849 308 * West Virginia
Queenston-Lewiston 1851 317 * Niagara
John A. Roebling 1866 322 * Kentucky, Ohio
Niagara Clifton 1869 384 * Niagara
Brooklyn 1883 486 * New York City
Williamsburg 1903 488 * New York City
Bear Mountain 1924 497 * New York, Hudson River
Benjamin Franklin 1926 534 * Pennsylvania, New Jersey
Ambassador 1929 564 * Detroit, Ontario
George Washington 1931 1067 * New York City
Oakland Bay 1936 704 San Francisco Bay
Triborough Bridge 1936 421 Queens and Wards Island
Golden Gate 1937 1280 San Francisco Bay
Bronx-Whitestone 1939 701 New York City
Tacoma Narrows II 1950 853 New York City
Delaware Memorial 1951 656 Delaware River
Mackinac 1957 1158 Michigan, Upper and Lower Penninsula
Walt Whitman 1957 610 Delaware River
Throggs Neck 1961 549 New York City
Verrazano-Narrows 1964 1298 * New York City
Height Year Power
(m) completed (MW)
Niagara Adams 1895 37
Buffalo Bill 110 1910
Roosevelt 109 1911
Arrowrock 110 1915
Elephant Butte 92 1916
O'Shaughnessy 130 1923
Gorge 91 1924
Horse Mesa 93 1927 15
Canyon 109 1927 18
Pacoima 111 1929
Diablo 119 1930
Owyhee 127 1932
Hoover 221 1936 480
Grand Coulee 170 1942
Shasta 184 1945
Oroville Dam 187 1968 170
New Bullards 197 1969 150
Dworshak Dam 219 1973
USA 31.5
Germany 19.3
UK 10.4
Million people College College
per year size
Utah Salt Lake C 12.8
Idaho Boise 2.05 24100 Boise State
Idaho Falls .18
Moscow 10800 U Idaho
Rexburg 43000 BYU Idaho
Pocatello 10800 Idaho State
Montana Bozeman .78 15600 Montana State
Billings .46 4000 Montana State at Billings
Missoula 8300 University of Montana
Butte 2400 Montana Tech
N Dakota Fargo .47 14400 North Dakota State
Bismarck .31 4200 Bismarck State College
Grand Forks 14200 U North Dakota
S Dakota Sioux Falls .57
Rapid City .34
Iowa Des Moines 1.42
Cedar Rapids .67
Nebraska Omaha 2.45
Lincoln .16
Kansas Kansas City 5.75
Wichita .85
Oklahoma Oklahoma City 2.13
Tulsa 1.50
Alaska Anchorage 2.65
Fairbanks .55
Juneau .36
Wyoming Jackson Hole .6
Casper .08
Laramie 12900 U Wyoming
Million people/year
1 Atlanta 53.5
2 Los Angeles 42.9
3 Chicago 40.9
4 Dallas 35.8
5 Denver 33.6
6 New York JFK 31.0
7 San Francisco 27.7
8 Seattle 25.0
9 Orlando 24.6
10 Las Vegas 24.4
11 Charlotte 24.2
12 Newark 23.1
13 Phoenix 22.4
14 Houston 22.0
15 Miami 21.3
16 Boston 20.7
23 Salt Lake C 12.8
24 San Diego 12.6
25 Wash Dulles 11.9
26 Wash Reagan 11.6
27 Tampa 10.9
31 Nashville 8.92
41 Kansas City 5.75
43 Fort Myers 5.04
52 Jacksonville 3.47
53 W. Palm Beach 3.45
57 Orlando 2.72
58 Anchorage 2.65
60 Omaha 2.45
63 Memphis 2.31
66 Oklahoma City 2.13
67 Boise 2.05
68 Louisville 2.04
76 El Paso 1.74
80 Tulsa 1.50
83 Des Moines 1.42
101 Wichita .85
108 Bozeman .78
Cedar Rapids .67
Sioux Falls .57
Fairbanks .55
Fargo .47
Billings .46
Juneau .36
Low average tuition
High student choice rank
High SAT average score
© Jason Maron, all rights reserved.
Data from Wikipedia unless otherwise specified.